I write analysis and commentary on what's moving rates, bonds, FX and equities, pitch individual stocks, and keep a log of the calls I make.
2 series · Macro / Pitches
I started Geekpad at school, writing about everything from tech to sport to COVID. The new version does one thing properly: markets. Here's what's changing, what each series covers, and how the call log works.
France, the UK and the US are all being tested on their budgets. Norway and Singapore aren't. What separates them, and what history says about cutting your way out of a debt problem.
My original pitch on CTSH, followed by a look at the October rally, the Q3 bookings miss, and whether the thesis still holds.
Lessons on hedging and price reactions from my time around a commodities trading business.
Every call, with what would prove me wrong
| Opened | Call | Thesis | Wrong if… | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | US 2s30s steepener Entry +75bp · Target +115bp · Stop +55bp · 12 months | Cheaper oil lets the Fed ease while a fiscal premium no party is addressing keeps the long end anchored. | Sticky inflation keeps the Fed on hold, or a saved peace dividend or deficit deal flattens the long end. Stop at +55bp. | Open Article |
| 26 Oct 2026 | OAT–BTP 10y stays positive (long BTP vs short OAT) Entry +45bp · Target +75bp · Stop +20bp · to the April 2027 first round | France's primary deficit, rising debt path and repeated government collapses have built a France-specific premium that halves only every 15–18 months. | A clean 2027 budget or Italian pre-election loosening narrows the gap. Stop at +20bp. | Open Article |
Closed calls stay up, wins and losses alike.
A Python tool I'm building that tracks how stress in government bonds is feeding into bank funding, with a paper-trading layer on top. Readings will be published here once it's live.
I'm Vedant, an Economics student at Cambridge. I'm most interested in macro and cross-asset markets: working out what moves rates, bonds, currencies and equities, and making a call on it.
Marketpad started life as Geekpad, a blog I ran at school. This is version two, focused entirely on markets.
Questions about a call, ideas for a post, or opportunities.